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NFL MAKES DIRECTV A HOT TICKET
(March 23, 2009) There are dark clouds over the economy, but they're not obscuring the rosy picture at DirecTV, the nation's largest satellite-TV provider.

DirecTV, based in El Segundo, Calif., is adding subscribers at a healthy clip, and growing earnings in part because of its NFL Sunday Ticket, which broadcasts out-of-market National Football League games. The Ticket, which costs around $300 a year, is must-see programming for consumers such as Heather Polinsky in Alma, Mich., who watches it to track her beloved Pittsburgh Steelers. Declares Ms. Polinsky, an assistant professor and audio-unit manager at the School of Broadcast & Cinematic Arts: "I won't give it up."

The satellite broadcaster is using its premier sports package and the loyalty of its high-end subscribers to shield it from the worst of today's recession. The company added 301,000 new subscribers in the fourth quarter, its best showing since 2005, while reducing customer turnover to a record-low 1.42%. This year, subscribers easily could top 18 million.

DirecTV leads the pay-TV industry with more than 130 high-definition channels, and it aims to keep that edge by launching its 12th satellite this year. That will enhance its ability to provide high-tech features such as video-on-demand to more than 100 million homes.

Late last year, the company also replaced rival Dish Network in a partnership with AT DirecTV and AT&T will sell each other's services in bundled packages. This hookup, notes Goldman Sachs, lessens the risk of DirecTV not having a broadband product, and increases the chances that it will keep the Ticket when its deal with the NFL ends after the 2010 season.

Overall, solid subscriber growth could drive the company's 2009 earnings 7% above 2008 results, to $1.6 billion, or $1.63 a share, on revenue of $21 billion. Next year, profits could hit $2 billion, or about $2.15 a share, aided by share buybacks. DirecTV made $1.5 billion, or $1.37 a share, on $19.7 billion last year.

After hitting a price of $29 last summer, DirecTV shares are down about 9% this year, to around $22. They sell for about 13 times estimated 2009 earnings. CEO Chase Carey argues that the shares are "woefully undervalued."

Paul Wright, an analyst at Loomis Sayles, which owns more than two million shares, thinks better-than-expected earnings this year could push DirecTV toward $30 in 12 months. "They are executing tremendously," he says.

Now, that's the Ticket.

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