Courtesy New York Times

(March 18, 2009) The N.C.A.A. has a major decision to make within the next 12 months: stick with its 11-year, $6 billion contract with CBS to carry the men’s basketball tournament through 2013, or exercise an option to get out after next season.

Options like the N.C.A.A.’s exist to permit leagues or other sports organizations to capitalize on better financial markets than existed when a deal was signed.

But the economy is so weak that only the most optimistic forecaster can spot more than vague stirrings of a recovery by March 2010. If the N.C.A.A. opts out, then it will exchange the certainty of CBS’s fees in 2011, 2012 and 2013 — above the annual average $545 million — for the hope of a March Madness free-agent payoff. Tough choice.

The financial world has changed drastically since the deal was signed on Nov. 18, 1999 (although it did not go into effect until 2003, after a previous deal expired). The Dow Jones industrial average stood at 11,035.70 that day, but it closed Monday at 7,216.97; Citigroup stock was at $56.25 and is now at $2.23; Bank of America has fallen from $65.38 to $6.18; and General Motors from $69.81 to $2.52.

CBS’s $6 billion bid looks overly rich nine-plus years later, but the network was protecting its turf, a lesson it learned when previous management let its N.F.L. rights go to Fox in 1993.

Sean McManus, the president of CBS News and CBS Sports, said that he had had informal talks with the N.C.A.A. about an extension. “We have a pretty good track record of renewing all our deals well before they expire,” he said by phone Monday.

CBS does not want to see the tournament leave. “It fits perfectly into our schedule, and it’s become one of the signature sports,” McManus said. “So I’d rather not anticipate life at CBS Sports without it.”

A CBS Sports without the tournament, he said, would mean less regular-season basketball. Why ladle out the soup if you can’t serve the entrees — and receive about $1 million for a 30-second ad in the championship game?

Greg Shaheen, the N.C.A.A. senior vice president for basketball and business strategies, praised the N.C.A.A.’s relationship with CBS and said that “our interests are how to best create a continuing long-term relationship that benefits our membership.” He said there was “not much to discuss” on the opt-out.

Still, the option gives the N.C.A.A. a chance to test ESPN’s avidity. Its dual flow of revenue from advertisers and subscribers enabled it to outbid Fox by $100 million in November to carry the Bowl Championship Series from 2011 to 2014, but the economy has worsened since then.

The price for the tournament, even a year from now, may make even the mighty ESPN blanch, especially if it cannot raise its industry-high subscriber fees or charge enough for advertising to justify an enormously expensive deal.

Even in a better economy, ESPN is not likely to get the whole tournament if all the games were on cable (where B.C.S. games will be). The N.C.A.A. likes the exposure that broadcast television provides and it is unlikely ESPN would put many, if any, games on ABC.

Another way to lure ESPN after 2010 — and provide CBS some financial relief from the last three years of onerous rights payments — is to expand the tournament to 72 or 96 teams. The N.C.A.A. could then sell ESPN some games (though not all the new, least valuable, early rounders) and still satisfy CBS with the Final Four and other games.

The economy has already bitten CBS in this year’s tournament. It would be a victory to match last year’s gross ad sales — estimated at $580 million by Nielsen Media — with financial advertisers A.I.G., Bank of America and Wachovia off the roster. The financial sector poured in nearly $41 million last year, Nielsen reported.

The Marine Corps and the Air Force are also out. But the automakers are surprisingly strong, with G.M., Mercedes and Lexus returning, and CBS adding Audi.

“The movie category is good and fast foods are with us, and Microsoft is in,” said John Bogusz, the executive vice president for sports sales at CBS.